Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2026 - Mexico
Puffin, Hightail
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 8-1-0
56%
Meta
+3.4
Perf
4.0
Surp
5.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Luis Canche (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ernesto Manzur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Ortiz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs nissim hernandez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs David Vargas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39
85:15
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Carlos Daniel Zamora Salazar (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16
Round 10: Win vs Max Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
5.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
9th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
3.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ian Manuel Espinosa Méndez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Win vs Julio Alberto Sánchez Torres (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Braulio Mora (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Miguel Rubio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
29th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Saúl Orozco Albiter (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sebastián Estrella (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marco Antonio Mendoza Cabrera (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Fernando Valenzuela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
80:20
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs KI JO HAN KIM (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 82:18
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 80% | Win |
41st • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Miguel Rubio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bruno Romero (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Eduardo mauricio Gonzalez abrego (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Win vs Marco Antonio Jiménez García (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
85:15
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Saúl Orozco Albiter (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Win |
| R9 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs David Vargas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Natanael Eguren (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Ian Manuel Espinosa Méndez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Win |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mario Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brayan Izquierdo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Diego de Alba Montes (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.