National Championship 2026 - Mexico - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jose Carlos Uribe

46th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs nissim hernandez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 23:77

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jorge Octavio Mora Sánchez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Arnulfo Gonzalez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.28
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.88

Ernesto Manzur

31st • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marco Antonio Jiménez García (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Fernando Valenzuela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Manuel Humberto Barrientos (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs OMAR MATA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.60
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.65

Ian Manuel Espinosa Méndez

39th • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Liz Suastes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Roberto Lobato (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Angel Padilla (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Noe Perez (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.85
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Arnulfo Gonzalez

53rd • 0-6-0

83%

Meta

-3.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Angel Padilla (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Genaro Ramos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manuel Humberto Barrientos (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jose de Jesus Romero Valdez (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jose Carlos Uribe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Bruno Romero (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.