National Championship 2026 - Mexico - Aurora, Legacy of Tempest (CC)

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Saúl Orozco Albiter

32nd • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesús Mercado (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Sierra (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liz Suastes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fernando León Rivera (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Arnoldo Sandoval (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50

Braulio Mora

19th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs KI JO HAN KIM (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Max Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Alejandro Zavala Rodriguez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Castillo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Roberto Lobato (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Sebastián Estrella

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luis Franco (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesús Mercado (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlo Alcantar (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mario Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.