National Championship 2026 - Mexico - Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster (CC)

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Oscar Rodríguez

45th • 3-2-1

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Genaro Ramos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

5:95

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gaston Zagursky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 6:94

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Edmark Avalos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bruno Romero (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Angel Padilla (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Marco Antonio Jiménez García (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.19
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Win	✗	0.69	2.52

David Arturo Del Castillo Valdez

50th • 1-4-1

83%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Edmark Avalos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fernando Perez Lagunas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 17:83

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mario Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Luis Marlon Villarreal (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jorge Octavio Mora Sánchez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Luis Franco

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sebastián Estrella (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Salvador Ramirez Rosales (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesus Roman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.