Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at National Championship 2026 - Mexico
Marlynn, Treasure Hunter
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
34th • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
3.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Vigneo Guzman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Vargas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Roger Alan Luna Fernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs David Arturo Del Castillo Valdez (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Rodolfo García (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.