Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes

3rd • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brayan Izquierdo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Carlos Daniel Zamora Salazar (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Luis Canche (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs David Vargas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.13
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.61
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.96
R11	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Fernando Perez Lagunas

25th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Arturo Del Castillo Valdez (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 83:17

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julio Alberto Sánchez Torres (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marco Antonio Mendoza Cabrera (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 83:17

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs nissim hernandez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Roger Alan Luna Fernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.09
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.54
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Eduardo Castillo Trujillo

38th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Alejandro Zavala Rodriguez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Ortiz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs KI JO HAN KIM (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Salvador Ramirez Rosales (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Brayan Izquierdo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Edmark Avalos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.19
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.