Kano at Pro Tour: Yokohama 2026

Kano

32 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joshua Myles Lim

44th • 6-0-0

67%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

6.0

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Chu Heng Eng (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Austin Kim (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

90:10

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.41
R7	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.21
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.28
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.11
R10	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.33

Evan Herndon

1st • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

5.0

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Zachary Johnson (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Lucas Dutailly (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs May Hayden (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00
R7	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.21
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.28
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.54
R11	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.95

Filipe Lima Cardoso

10th • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Metallo (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Terra) - Expected: 67:33

90:10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Florian) - Expected: 88:12, favorite upset

85:15

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Cody Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.21
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.24
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.28
R9	Silver Age	Terra	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.88
R10	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Loss	✓	0.88	-
R11	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.38

Yuanji Li

71st • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

7.0

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gui Cohen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Laksana Eka S.P. (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Tim Coates (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.41
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.64
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.11
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.34
R11	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.53

Jimmy Niro Demers

48th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Dash) - Expected: 29:71

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

90:10

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Anthony Dang (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Dash	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.24
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.57
R9	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.34
R11	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.33

Juan Chacon

56th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

5.5

Diff

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andy Pham (Dash) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Marie Watson (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Peng Joon (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

90:10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Barrett Goss (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

40:60

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Liam Bennett (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Dash	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.08
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.57
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.30
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.58

Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong

70th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

4.9

Diff

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Raphael Rosa (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Keegan Walls (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs 稜馬石川 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.21
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.77
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.34
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.58

Tetsuo Matsumura

143rd • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

3.7

Diff

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andre Ryan See (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Camden Keener (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs shirui wu (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

R11

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.21
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.77
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.35
R11	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Leon Schmidtke

144th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

3.9

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Yudai Shimizu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Güntekin Koc (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Luke Gilmore (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

85:15

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Matt Rogers (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.41
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.24
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.88
R9	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.38

Zak Miller

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

4.5

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs German Glukhov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Guillermo Vergara Vazquez (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Joshua Myles Lim (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.64
R8	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.31
R10	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Lancelot Errico

79th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs German Glukhov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs John Milner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.88
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.31
R10	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.54

Hao-Han Chuang

138th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide) - Expected: 92:8, favorite upset

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Chard Tan (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Arjun Garg (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jun Kheng Ong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Kelvin Chen (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	90%	Loss	✓	0.92	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.24
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.88
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.34
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Guillermo Vergara Vazquez

155th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

4.0

Diff

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs June Lekstutis (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Clark (Terra) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Yong Yi Chua (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93
R7	Silver Age	Terra	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.68
R8	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.35
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Steven Young

dropped • 3-0-0

33%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

6.4

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Patrick Steele (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

6.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.36
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.76
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	1.28

yohei ohki

dropped • 3-0-0

33%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

8.1

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cristerson Chee (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs William Bradshaw (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Lucas Izumi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

8.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.36
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.96
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	3.75

Brayden Pritchard

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

4.6

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs kouji hamada (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.36
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	2.23

Ryan Youngquist

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

6.0

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alex Mihilli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mitch Winter (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	3.29
R8	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.67

Sebastian Spicher

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.36
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.66
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Zdeněk Matura

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kenta Miki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Wen Yu Thye (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Andrew Ang (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.56

Jake mccormack

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Laksana Eka S.P. (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Majin Bae (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Dash	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.56

Jin Han Toh

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Dash	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Kevin Murphy

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Miyaji Kotaro (Riptide) - Expected: 92:8

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Emily Froese (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.25
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Warre Sevens

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs James Lewis (Terra) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Terra	65%	Win	✓	0.33	1.36
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

William Pearlman

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jean Paul Negron (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

雅貴大場

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Paul Crame (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tom Simon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.36
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Jasper de Riet

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Florian) - Expected: 88:12, favorite upset

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Igor Wesołowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Loss	✓	0.88	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Katsuya Hirai

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michael McDowell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Natthaphon Kasemphonchotinan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Daniel Winning

dropped • 1-1-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.1

Surp

4.9

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Marsha Ho (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Brandon Canedy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	4.93

Kurtis phelps

dropped • 1-1-0

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dexter Canright (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	3.54
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Lee Kimball

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nova Chan (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Cody Gebert

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Denny Koh

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jaime Manzano (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.