Valda Brightaxe at Pro Tour: Yokohama 2026

Valda Brightaxe

50 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jude Cornett

76th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

4.7

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bryce Miller-Booker (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bun Ar (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Matt Rogers (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Angove (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.40
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.55
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.08
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.72

Arthur Trehet

81st • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

4.8

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mikko Pena (Dorinthea) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Vynnset) - Expected: 81:19

15:85

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

75:25

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.46
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Win	✗	0.81	3.19
R9	Silver Age	Vynnset	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.45
R10	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.75

Jacob Trossing

103rd • 4-2-0

17%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

6.4

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Oh Oh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Mok Marcus (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Rob Catton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.45
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.59
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.01
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

John Milner

104th • 4-2-0

17%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

6.2

Diff

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Gladman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.60
R9	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.01
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.21

Christopher Iaali

120th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

6.1

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gilles Molina (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ismael Boulbaz (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Newberry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Franciszek Sapikowski (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.30
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.80
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.01
R11	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Matt Muus

42nd • 3-2-1

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Draw vs Dennis Zhang (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Roman Legíň (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.68
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.75

Justin Cu

28th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

15:85

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

75:25

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.48
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.75

FUKUHARA RYOU

40th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

4.8

Diff

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tim Coates (Dorinthea) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Masaki Hamada (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Jun Loong Wong (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.01
R11	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Cody Williams

75th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

3.1

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Soya Okuda (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Molho (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Matthew Harris (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

15:85

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.24
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.68
R11	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Keegan Walls

146th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Reuben Thomas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Samuel Cho (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

15:85

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Rob Catton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.24
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.61
R10	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Enki Dupaquier

101st • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.9

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs 稜馬石川 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kelvin Chen (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tariq Patel (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs shirui wu (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Stephen Henry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.85
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.01
R11	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Brodie Spurlock

102nd • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Harris (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs シンヤカワグチ (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

75:25

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.68
R11	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Sam Cornelis

110th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Clements (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Kelvin Chen

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Luke E (Vynnset) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

15:85

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.30
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.17
R8	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Mason Galvan

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

3.6

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Husan Bang Chang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Law Wen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.68
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.92
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Evan Tanguy

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Nick Butcher (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R7	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.77
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexis VALENTIN

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

5.1

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alex Mihilli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs lucas gomes pacheco (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.41
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.67

Ashley Southwood

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

5.7

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Brannen (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Paul Barthonnet (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.48
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	3.21

Clinton Ng

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

4.9

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Keith Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kai Yang Yuen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.41
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	2.47
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Ethan Maher

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Doriann LASSARA (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Xincheng Hou (Dash) - Expected: 84:16

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs 창건 곽 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.44
R7	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.58
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Kyoshiro Takegahara

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.1

Surp

5.0

Diff

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs William Pearlman (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (1.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33
R8	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.67

Neil Bautista

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

4.2

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Young (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.95
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	3.21

Chandler To

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Josh Lind (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Hyde (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	1.09

Colin Topper

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Newberry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Luke Snyder (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	3.21

Francesco Giorgio

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Leon Schmidtke (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	2.12
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Joel Gibbons

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kuan Li (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.78
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Martin Holík

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bun Ar (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Edward Kimble (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.68
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Masaki Hamada

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jason Watkins (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.81
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicholas Tran

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

5.8

Diff

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lee Kimball (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Valentin Varga (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs EITARO SHIBATA (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	5.81
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Pat Eshghy

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Katsakis (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tom Simon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joel Guzman (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.67

Reuben Thomas

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Keegan Walls (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alex Lo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.81
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Shane Martin

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Brady Hayes (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.82
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Tyler Zeringue

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nathan Eastwood (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Bertrand (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.95
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Esmond Heng

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jun Kheng Ong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs 秀太栗原 (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Jacob Clements

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joel Guzman

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexander Young

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Neil Bautista (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dominic Chong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.00
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

CYK Lionel

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	3.61
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Emmanuel Rojas

dropped • 1-1-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

0.9

Surp

4.2

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	4.21

Evanking Chiu

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

4.2

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Whewell (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	4.21

Daniel Dreisziger

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Yau

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Cass Emerson (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ryu San jose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Tim Sofsky

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Douglas Levy

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Kaiser Wong

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

RICARDO DIAZ

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mauro Annetta (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Ruairidh Wasson

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (0.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Ryouichi Sakazaki

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Victoria Lakey

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Xavier McLean

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.