Pro Tour: Yokohama 2026 - Briar (SAGE)

Briar

27 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yuki Lee Bender

2nd • 6-0-0

83%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

8.6

Diff

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs 岡本一朗 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Cody Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Eugene C (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

R11

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

8.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.82	2.93
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.99
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.41
R10	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.72
R11	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83

Lucas Molho

67th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Cody Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Rob Catton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.99
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.12
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.24
R11	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Mok Marcus

95th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

4.2

Diff

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Camden Keener (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 80:20

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Peter Bråss (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.32
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.26
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.24
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.36

Enes Findik

123rd • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

4.9

Diff

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Martin Holík (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Peter Bråss (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Ignacio Alvarado (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.99
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.26
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.12
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.55

TSUNAKI SAWAI

145th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

7.5

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Terukazu Goshima (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

20:80

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

7.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.21
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.16
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.82	3.77
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.36

Lucas Dutailly

52nd • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

5.1

Diff

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jack Bradbury (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Emily Froese (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.82	2.93
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.99
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.22
R10	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Joshua Rath

156th • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Raphael Rosa (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Clements (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Güntekin Koc (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.10
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Kazuki Itabashi

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Reuben Thomas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tim Coates (Dorinthea) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.51
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Justin Fryar

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs CYK Lionel (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.32	1.11
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	2.20
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Marie Watson

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Zachary Adams (Dorinthea) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Remi Grasset (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.08
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	1.15

Mercy Bickell

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Robert Szura (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ryan Newberry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.90
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

motohiro makigano

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cody Broten (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Brian Gutierrez (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Stephen Henry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.49
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.98
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Anthony Pham

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jake Landaiche (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.70
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Christopher Higashi

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Luke Murphy (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.87

Matthew W

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mauro Annetta (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	2.51

Naib Mobassir

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alice Greer-Stokes (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Bart Horré (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Henrique Gouvêa (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.83
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Nicholas Tan (Nickay)

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs 征隆内山 (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Cody Broten (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Samuel Cho

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Eduardo Melo (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Keegan Walls (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Terra) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.70
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Steven Chen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Cubi Nguyen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Nicolas Heiden (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.74
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

suk kyo suh

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ivan Taranto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.49
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

KeDuo Yang

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jack Tang (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Clinton Ng (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Sam Davison (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jaime Manzano

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

3.2

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Denny Koh (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	3.23
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

June Lekstutis

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Guillermo Vergara Vazquez (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Taylor Reichel

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Postle (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

征隆内山

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Melvin Chew (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Tan (Nickay) (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jakob Allan

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

song kyunghwan

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.