Pro Tour: Yokohama 2026 - Riptide (SAGE)

Riptide

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Navarro

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.4

Surp

5.7

Diff

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Hao-Han Chuang (Kano) - Expected: 8:92, underdog victory

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Zack Phillips (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

0:100

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Oldhim) - Expected: 0:100

0:100

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 0:100

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Win	✗	0.92	3.58
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.37
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Kazuhiro Watanabe

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ugo Henson (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	65%	Win	✓	0.33	1.17
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	1.42
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Miyaji Kotaro

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

0.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Kano) - Expected: 8:92

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

0:100

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Oldhim) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (0.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	1.42
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.