Showdown: Brisbane 2026 - Fai (SAGE)

Fai

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thomas Bailey Galbraith

10th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cooper Phipps (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joon Chien Tan (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs James Williams (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lee Mackley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.61
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.82
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.14
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Charlie Thompson

21st • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Casey Wilson (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Tulloch (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs James Williams (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jackson CASANOVA (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

James Williams

27th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David House (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jerry Kaonang (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Charlie Thompson (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Roger Dorko (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Claire Grant (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

James Drummond

40th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Gillingham (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Smith (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Mifsud (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Williams (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lee Mackley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Louis Shum (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Dash) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	Silver Age	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Deanna Packwood

51st • 1-6-0

71%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Ly (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Woo (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dyna Jones (Azalea) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ed Chan (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs None ()

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel McKeating (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Crane (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R5	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Ken Hickey

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Evan Bicknell (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Richard Gillingham (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Mann (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Patrik Ikhardt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Armin Eminovic

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Mackley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel McKeating (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Woo (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Raymond Ocdol (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.14
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Cooper Phipps

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Raymond Ocdol (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel McKeating (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vincent Lim (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Griffin Armitage (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.52
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.06
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Marcus Costa

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David House (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jerry Kaonang (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dyna Jones (Azalea) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Zac Whyte

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rhyan Wellwood (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tye Soens (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Daniel Fanning

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Kaspar (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rowan Duffield (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kristopher Ryan-Clout (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.18

Richard Gillingham

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs James Drummond (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ken Hickey (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alister Ling (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vinh Luong (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

James Wilson

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alister Ling (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jess Arnesen (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Griffin Armitage (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.