Ira, Crimson Haze at Showdown: Brisbane 2026

Ira, Crimson Haze

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Patrick Watt

3rd • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Damian Moss (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Mifsud (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ken Hickey (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jackson CASANOVA (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Horne (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Charlie Thompson (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Owen Young (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Dash) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.24
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R7	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.88
R9	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

German Glukhov

15th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Smith (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Mann (Olympia) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Horne (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jess Arnesen (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Shaun Leow (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Kaspar (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lee Mackley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.23
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lee Mackley

22nd • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Armin Eminovic (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Louis Shum (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Finch (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Owen Young (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs James Drummond (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs German Glukhov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Riley Hughes

28th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Faron Swingler (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ed Chan (Enigma) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zack Jarmyn (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jess Arnesen (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.84
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Philip Nagle

34th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Kindl (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Roger Dorko (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Marcus Costa (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zac Whyte (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jesse Mann (Olympia) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.99

Patrik Ikhardt

37th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jy Jenkins (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Simon Cox (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Clarke (Enigma) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Aiden Harrison (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ken Hickey (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jerry Kaonang (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.99

Vincent Lim

48th • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joon Chien Tan (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

95:5

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Connor Knight (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cooper Phipps (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel McKeating (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jy Jenkins (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Aiden Harrison (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.04
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Mark Phillips

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Boorman (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.