Showdown: Brisbane 2026 - Kayo (SAGE)

Kayo

31 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Marr

3rd • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Riley Hughes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emma Hollingsworth (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Spencer Horton (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Clements (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Horne (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jason Ly (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Damian Moss (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.58
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.41
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Matthew Horne

5th • 7-1-0

75%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vinh Luong (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs German Glukhov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Glover (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jason Ly (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Marr (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.12
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.19
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Jacob Clements

5th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rowan Duffield (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Mann (Olympia) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Simon Cox (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jess Arnesen (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Emma Hollingsworth (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Damian Moss (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.15
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Owen Young

5th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alister Ling (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lee Mackley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Ly (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs benji muehlebach (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jake mccormack (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jake mccormack

9th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ben Clarke (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Thomson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zac Whyte (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jordan Finch (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Samuel Tulloch (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Owen Young (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Spencer Horton

11th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Lim (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Crane (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Zac Whyte (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Charlie Thompson (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Damian Moss (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Riley Hughes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Robert Piper

12th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Rosiak (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Griffin Armitage (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jackson CASANOVA (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Riley Hughes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Troy Wilson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Smith (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Charlie Thompson (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.58
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Samuel Tulloch

13th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marko Zutic (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Charlie Thompson (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jerry Kaonang (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Glover (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs benji muehlebach (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.18
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ryan McIntyre

18th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Finch (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Geoffrey Devereaux (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kristopher Ryan-Clout (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Ly (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Mifsud (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Simon Cox (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Samuel Smith (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.58
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.72
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.80

Griffin Armitage

20th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel McKeating (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Wilson (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Cooper Phipps (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Glover (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.48
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.21
R7	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.31

Michael Feng

23rd • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Fanning (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ben Clarke (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Simon Cox (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Louis Shum (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Troy Wilson

26th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Claire Grant (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Ly (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs bill huynh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jordan Finch (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tye Soens (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.15
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Jordan Finch

31st • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lee Mackley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tye Soens (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Shaun Leow (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.98
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jess Arnesen

33rd • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Connor Knight (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs James Wilson (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs German Glukhov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Riley Hughes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Mifsud (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.58
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Jerry Kaonang

43rd • 3-3-1

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Rusling (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs James Williams (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Marcus Costa (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Tulloch (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Aaron Woo (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Crane (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Patrik Ikhardt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Draw	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tom Dagan

42nd • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Shum (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Damian Moss (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Anderson (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Aiden Harrison (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Katsakis (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R6	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Shaun Leow

44th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gus Drummond (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Crane (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs German Glukhov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Aiden Harrison (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jordan Finch (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Crane

49th • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gavin Wu (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Mann (Olympia) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Raymond Ocdol (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jerry Kaonang (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Deanna Packwood (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Alister Ling

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs James Wilson (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Owen Young (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Richard Gillingham (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Faron Swingler (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jackson CASANOVA (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Simon Cox

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zack Jarmyn (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patrik Ikhardt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Williams (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Xiu Meng Yip

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marcus Costa (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jess Arnesen (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Owen Young (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Armin Eminovic (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tye Soens (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Geoff Wong

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Casey Wilson (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tye Soens (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Boorman (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Marko Zutic (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Roger Dorko (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.31
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Raymond Ocdol

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tye Soens (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cooper Phipps (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Faron Swingler (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Armin Eminovic (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Crane (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Zack Jarmyn

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Simon Cox (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Rusling (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Claire Grant (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joon Chien Tan (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Riley Hughes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Christopher Rosiak

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marko Zutic (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vinh Luong (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Faron Swingler

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Riley Hughes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gavin Wu (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Raymond Ocdol (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alister Ling (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joon Chien Tan

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Vinh Luong (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vincent Lim (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Zack Jarmyn (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kurtis phelps

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Dobler (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Ly (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Katsakis (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Rhyan Wellwood

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zac Whyte (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gus Drummond (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Shum (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.78
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Ruairidh Wasson

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Woo (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Finch (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.86
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Samuel Thomson

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aiden Harrison (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.