Riptide at Showdown: Brisbane 2026
Riptide
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 5-3-0
88%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
65:35
R1 SAGE
Round 1: Win vs Deanna Packwood (Fai) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R2 SAGE
Round 2: Win vs Kurtis phelps (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R3 SAGE
Round 3: Win vs Troy Wilson (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R4 SAGE
Round 4: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R5 SAGE
Round 5: Win vs Owen Young (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Horne (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
0:100
R7 SAGE
Round 7: Loss vs Damian Moss (Oldhim) - Expected: 0:100
Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Oldhim | 0% | Loss |
| R8 | Kayo | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.