Oldhim at Showdown: Brisbane 2026

Oldhim

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Damian Moss

2nd • 8-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Boorman (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Woo (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Louis Shum (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Spencer Horton (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

100:0

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jason Ly (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Clements (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Andrew Marr (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

95:5

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Dash) - Expected: 94:6, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.31
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.42
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.47
R10	Silver Age	Dash	95%	Loss	✓	0.94	-

Tye Soens

17th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Raymond Ocdol (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Zac Whyte (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Geoff Wong (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Finch (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Boorman (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Troy Wilson (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.52

Roger Dorko

36th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Arthur Kindl (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Philip Nagle (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs James Williams (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Smith (Rhinar) - Expected: 37:63

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Geoff Wong (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Casey Wilson (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Aaron Woo

dropped • 2-3-1

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ruairidh Wasson (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Deanna Packwood (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Armin Eminovic (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Damian Moss (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Jerry Kaonang (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Casey Wilson (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Draw	✓	0.70	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.