Showdown: Brisbane 2026 - Dash (SAGE)

Dash

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Emma Hollingsworth

1st • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

5.2

Surp

7.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Geoff Wong (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Shaun Leow (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jake mccormack (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alister Ling (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Horne (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

5:95

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Damian Moss (Oldhim) - Expected: 6:94, underdog victory

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

7.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.60
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.25
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	5%	Win	✗	0.94	3.95

Isaac Katsakis

29th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ed Chan (Enigma) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kurtis phelps (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Louis Shum (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 16:84

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Claire Grant (Kano) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Griffin Armitage (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Cody Gebert

32nd • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Geoffrey Devereaux (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Glover (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Griffin Armitage (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Shaun Leow (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 16:84

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs James Drummond (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	15%	Win	✗	0.84	0.38
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.