Showdown: Brisbane 2026 - Enigma (SAGE)

Enigma

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ed Chan

dropped • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Katsakis (Dash) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Riley Hughes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Aiden Harrison (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Deanna Packwood (Fai) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Casey Wilson (Dromai) - Expected: 11:89

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Geoffrey Devereaux (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.64
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Marko Zutic

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Tulloch (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Rosiak (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Smith (Rhinar) - Expected: 30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Connor Knight (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Geoff Wong (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Ben Clarke

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Patrik Ikhardt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.70
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.