Showdown: Brisbane 2026 - Rhinar (SAGE)

Rhinar

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Samuel Smith

30th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs German Glukhov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs James Drummond (Fai) - Expected: 31:69

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Marko Zutic (Enigma) - Expected: 70:30

95:5

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Dobler (Dromai) - Expected: 95:5

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Roger Dorko (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	95%	Win	✓	0.05	0.04
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.06
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jy Jenkins

38th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Patrik Ikhardt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Boorman (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 26:74

95:5

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Casey Wilson (Dromai) - Expected: 95:5, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Geoffrey Devereaux (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Vincent Lim (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

95:5

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Glover (Dromai) - Expected: 95:5

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	95%	Loss	✓	0.95	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.38
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.99
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	95%	Win	✓	0.05	0.07

Evan Bicknell

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ken Hickey (Fai) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Geoffrey Devereaux (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kurtis phelps (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 26:74

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.96
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.82
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R6	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.