Showdown: Brisbane 2026 - Nuu (SAGE)

Nuu

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kristopher Ryan-Clout

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Mann (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Connor Knight (Nuu) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Kayo) - Expected: 17:83

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Fanning (Fai) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Connor Knight

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jess Arnesen (Kayo) - Expected: 17:83

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kristopher Ryan-Clout (Nuu) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

5:95

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 6:94

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Marko Zutic (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sarah Nicholas

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Glover (Dromai) - Expected: 23:77

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs James Wilson (Fai) - Expected: 12:88

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 17:83

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jy Jenkins (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.