Showdown: Brisbane 2026 - Dromai (SAGE)

Dromai

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Glover

39th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Nuu) - Expected: 77:23

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cody Gebert (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Kaspar (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Horne (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Tulloch (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Griffin Armitage (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

5:95

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jy Jenkins (Rhinar) - Expected: 5:95

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-

Casey Wilson

46th • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Charlie Thompson (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Geoff Wong (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

5:95

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jy Jenkins (Rhinar) - Expected: 5:95, underdog victory

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 13:87

90:10

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ed Chan (Enigma) - Expected: 89:11

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Woo (Oldhim) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Roger Dorko (Oldhim) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	5%	Win	✗	0.95	1.85
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.12
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.12
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Matthew Kaspar

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Fanning (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs bill huynh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Glover (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Claire Grant (Kano) - Expected: 38:62

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Williams (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs German Glukhov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.69
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Alexander Dobler

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kurtis phelps (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dyna Jones (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 24:76

5:95

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Smith (Rhinar) - Expected: 5:95

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-

Brodie Whyte

dropped • 1-1-0

Meta

+0.3

Perf

0.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rowan Duffield (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (0.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.23

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.