Dromai at Showdown: Brisbane 2026

Dromai

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Glover

39th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cody Gebert (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Kaspar (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Horne (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Tulloch (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Griffin Armitage (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jy Jenkins (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Casey Wilson

46th • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Charlie Thompson (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Geoff Wong (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jy Jenkins (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

5:95

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 6:94

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ed Chan (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Woo (Oldhim) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Roger Dorko (Oldhim) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.61
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Matthew Kaspar

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Fanning (Fai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs bill huynh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Glover (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Claire Grant (Kano) - Expected: 38:62

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Williams (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs German Glukhov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.57
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Alexander Dobler

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kurtis phelps (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dyna Jones (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 31:69

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Smith (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brodie Whyte

dropped • 1-1-0

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 31:69

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rowan Duffield (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (0.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.52

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.