
Azalea
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 4: Win vs Geoffrey Devereaux (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Valda Brightaxe | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Fai | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.