Showdown: Brisbane 2026 - Valda Brightaxe (SAGE)

Valda Brightaxe

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Louis Shum

14th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Mackley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rhyan Wellwood (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Dash) - Expected: 84:16

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Damian Moss (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs James Drummond (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41

bill huynh

16th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brodie Whyte (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Kaspar (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Dobler (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Evan Bicknell (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cody Gebert (Dash) - Expected: 84:16

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs James Williams (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.31
R6	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.21
R7	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Geoffrey Devereaux

50th • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

4.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Dash) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dyna Jones (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jy Jenkins (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ed Chan (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.84
R7	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Thomas Boorman

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jy Jenkins (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Damian Moss (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Geoff Wong (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tye Soens (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jonathon Vearing

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs benji muehlebach (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jackson CASANOVA (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (0.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Arthur Kindl

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Roger Dorko (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.