Briar at Showdown: San Diego 2026

Briar

23 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

John Kim

3rd • 6-1-0

57%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Tabarejo (Levia) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Perez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Leon Cassel (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rob Harechmak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.85
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Zayne Johnson

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Grant Strom (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Steve Le (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Biaggi (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zack Phillips (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs John Kim (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Josh Lind (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Connor Symons

13th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Lanuzo (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mia Cueva-Del Rosario (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dennis Pham (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Josh Lind (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jesse Perkins (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Steve Le

15th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Murray (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Austin Chinn (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Millar (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Will Stubbs (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Sean Soderman

17th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryu San jose (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Raul Verdejo (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mia Cueva-Del Rosario (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Colin Marshall (Dash) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.19
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Jesse Perkins

24th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chris Sov (Azalea) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Glenn Rosario II (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vince Hung (Dash) - Expected: 86:14

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Biaggi (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Josh Lind (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Connor Symons (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.56
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cody Broten

25th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emerson Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emmerson Montgomery (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Ferrell (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Raul Verdejo (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs kosei chetanna (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.92
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joseph Perez

27th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Lewis (Levia) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emerson Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs John Kim (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ynez Nevarez (Nuu) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.46
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Sael Garcia

31st • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Stanko (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Christian Staver (Arakni) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Arakni	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Jonathan Sanchez

37th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Colin Marshall (Dash) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Branden Adams (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Arnel Gancenia (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs John Cooper (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Branden Adams

40th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Douglas (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dominic Perez (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Florian) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nicholas DeStasio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Lui (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.98
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Chandler Bushnell

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Carlo Cuenca (Nuu) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sael Garcia (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Perez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Grant Strom

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Marchant (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Dash) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bryce Erickson (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Ferrell (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	2.02
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Jared Del Rosario

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Henry Gomez (Nuu) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Douglas (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gabriel Montes (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Peyton Politewicz (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Xavier Oli (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Joseph Marchant

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Grant Strom (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Leon Cassel (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sael Garcia (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peter Buddensiek

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Peyton Politewicz (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Symons (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Turner (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ynez Nevarez (Nuu) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Steve Le (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Biaggi (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Fernando Valenzuela

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rob Harechmak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs John Cooper (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raul Verdejo (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ethan Tabarejo (Levia) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Turner (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Glenn Rosario II

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs kosei chetanna (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Perkins (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Soderman (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Erikson (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Michael Dailey

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Othman Akel (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Clark Cressman (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Lind (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mia Cueva-Del Rosario (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs kosei chetanna (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Ian Tayag

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Staver (Arakni) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Leon Cassel (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Stanko (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Davis Owen (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ethan Tabarejo (Levia) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.63
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Peyton Politewicz

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Othman Akel (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Huynh (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jared Del Rosario (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shane Martin

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Turner (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Gavin Ceballos

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryu San jose (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.