Showdown: San Diego 2026 - Oldhim (SAGE)

Oldhim

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Marcus Brown

16th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Tagg ()

0:100

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mia Cueva-Del Rosario (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryu San jose (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emerson Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Ferrell (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Arnel Gancenia (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sael Garcia (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.12
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.28

Daylen Frehlick

21st • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Clark Cressman (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eric Lui (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

0:100

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Huynh (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Erikson (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.63
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	2.06
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Bryce Erickson

dropped • 2-3-1

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Emmerson Montgomery (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Freedman (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Grant Strom (Briar) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Data Doll MKII	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R6	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.