Showdown: San Diego 2026 - Dorinthea (SAGE)

Dorinthea

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Josh Lind

2nd • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.3

Diff

Deck

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Blaine Morry ()

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Dailey (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jesse Perkins (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Connor Symons (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

Dennis Pham

5th • 6-1-0

57%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.6

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Enigma) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Turner (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daylen Frehlick (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Symons (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Erikson (Dromai) - Expected: 12:88, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Zack Phillips (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.07
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Win	✗	0.88	2.14
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.87
R7	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Leon Cassel

11th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Flavin ()

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ian Tayag (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs kosei chetanna (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs John Kim (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Huynh (Enigma) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.87
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Nicholas DeStasio

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Arnel Gancenia (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Davis Owen (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Will Stubbs (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs kosei chetanna (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Lewis (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Branden Adams (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.