Showdown: San Diego 2026 - Fai (SAGE)

Fai

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Arnel Gancenia

10th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas DeStasio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Ferrell (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Taylor Morrow (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Marcus Brown (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.39
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.77
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Andrea Biaggi

28th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Freedman (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Shereena Decano (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Perkins (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Emerson Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Data Doll MKII	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.28
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Matthew Millar

36th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mark Johnson (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nick Tiller (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Steve Le (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Dash) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Negrillo (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ynez Nevarez (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.38
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.61
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R7	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.18

Joe Canton Encarnacion

38th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Huynh (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chris Sov (Azalea) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Marchant (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Shereena Decano (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jesse Perkins (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs kosei chetanna (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.17
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Xavier Oli

43rd • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Lanuzo (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Harechmak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Tiller (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Emmerson Montgomery (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jared Del Rosario (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ethan Tabarejo (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Austin Chinn

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shane Martin (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Steve Le (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peyton Politewicz (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bryce Douglas (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.00
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Clark Cressman

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dan Meadors (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Tabarejo (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daylen Frehlick (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Will Stubbs (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Davis Owen

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas DeStasio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs None ()

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ian Tayag (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.20
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Dan Meadors

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Clark Cressman (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Henry Gomez (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dominic Perez (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.