Showdown: San Diego 2026 - Kano (SAGE)

Kano

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Jaszczur

3rd • 7-0-0

86%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

Deck

90:10

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jiel Castillo (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Huynh (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Erikson (Dromai) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Josh Lind (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Brown (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Terra) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs John Kim (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Terra	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93

Ryan Brown

1st • 6-1-0

57%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

Deck

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bryce Erickson (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Austin Chinn (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sean Soderman (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Steve Le (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Arnel Gancenia (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Jacob Turner

30th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Colin Marshall (Dash) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Shane Martin (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Fernando Valenzuela (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rob Harechmak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.26
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Eric Lui

32nd • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thea Hognadottir (Lexi) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ynez Nevarez (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Morrow (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daylen Frehlick (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Dromai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Branden Adams (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93

kosei chetanna

35th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Glenn Rosario II (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kenjy Jap (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Leon Cassel (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas DeStasio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Dailey (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Cody Broten (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Michael Murray

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Steve Le (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thea Hognadottir (Lexi) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.