Showdown: San Diego 2026 - Dromai (SAGE)

Dromai

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexander Erikson

19th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.4

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kenjy Jap (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christian Staver (Arakni) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

90:10

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Dorinthea) - Expected: 88:12, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Raul Verdejo (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daylen Frehlick (Oldhim) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	15%	Win	✗	0.83	0.36
R2	Silver Age	Arakni	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	90%	Loss	✓	0.88	-
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.31

Justin Liwag

23rd • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Xavier Oli (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dan Meadors (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Perez (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Eric Lui (Kano) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs John Cooper (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.19
R7	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aaron Negrillo

44th • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Kayo) - Expected: 16:84

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Harechmak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 17:83

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Stanko (Lexi) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dominic Perez (Lexi) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Millar (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Ferrell (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.