Showdown: San Diego 2026 - Kayo (SAGE)

Kayo

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Zachary Wallach

5th • 6-1-0

43%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

Deck

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daylen Frehlick (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Shane Martin (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Justin Liwag (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mia Cueva-Del Rosario (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Cody Broten (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.18
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.32
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

Zack Phillips

12th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eric Lui (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Arnel Gancenia (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andrea Biaggi (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

MOISES LOPEZ

14th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Millar (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Cody Broten (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Leon Cassel (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Turner (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Nathan Crawford

26th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Negrillo (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vince Hung (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Ferrell (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Branden Adams (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sean Soderman (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.87
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Will Stubbs

29th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ynez Nevarez (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas DeStasio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Terra) - Expected: 23:77

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Clark Cressman (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Steve Le (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Terra	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.48
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Gabriel Montes

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Kim (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Lewis (Levia) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Othman Akel (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jared Del Rosario (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.94
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Nick Tiller

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Ferrell (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jiel Castillo (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Millar (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Xavier Oli (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryu San jose

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Soderman (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gavin Ceballos (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.78
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.