Showdown: San Diego 2026 - Enigma (SAGE)

Enigma

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thomas Huynh

5th • 6-1-0

71%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

Deck

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Fai) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Peyton Politewicz (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bryce Douglas (Lexi) - Expected: 56:44

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs John Cooper (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

100:0

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daylen Frehlick (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Leon Cassel (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.82	0.35
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.03
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Mia Cueva-Del Rosario

22nd • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Meza ()

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Brown (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Symons (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Dailey (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sean Soderman (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.01
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.70
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.87
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R7	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shereena Decano

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Biaggi (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 30:70

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Matheo Franchot

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Will Stubbs (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Grant Strom (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Othman Akel

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Peyton Politewicz (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Montes (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Nick Yaksich

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.