Showdown: San Diego 2026 - Lexi (SAGE)

Lexi

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thea Hognadottir

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Lui (Kano) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Murray (Kano) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Emerson Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mark Johnson (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Iyslander) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ethan Tabarejo (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.88
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R6	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bryce Douglas

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Branden Adams (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jared Del Rosario (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Huynh (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Raul Verdejo (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Emerson Miller

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cody Broten (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Perez (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thea Hognadottir (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Oldhim) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Biaggi (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ynez Nevarez (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dominic Perez

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Branden Adams (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Freedman (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dan Meadors (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Negrillo (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Data Doll MKII	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Zachary Stanko

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Raul Verdejo (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sael Garcia (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Tayag (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Negrillo (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.