Battle Hardened: Charleroi 2026 - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Paul van Gijssel

1st • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.8

Surp

4.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hugo Platret (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Valentin Popov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cedric SCHAACK (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sander Neeft (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Valentin Popov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.07
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.90
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Jimmy Nguyen

3rd • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Guillaume Desmartin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs simon haesaerts (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marco Di Toro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Toon Vertommen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sander Neeft (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Vasil Popov (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.46
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.39
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.43
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sander Neeft

5th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs rogier De wever (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elliot Bessède (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs jens van santberghe (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joris Borkelmans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tam Pham (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Valentin Popov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.07
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Vasil Popov

5th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Godon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs João Madureira (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wouter Ouwehand (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joris Borkelmans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nefra Greywulf (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.05
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.36
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.97
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tam Pham

12th • 5-1-1

86%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cedric SCHAACK (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niels Vos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs simon haesaerts (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Gindri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Draw	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Samed Demir

25th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Olivier Imbrechts ()

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pavlos Konstantinidis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gert Verleysen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin van Steenis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Florian Vanclaire (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joris Borkelmans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.43
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Lucas Dutailly

38th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Oliveira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wouter Ouwehand (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs boris froidville (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Stijn Borkelmans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.64
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Michiel Vonck

51st • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tibo Vanwambeke (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nefra Greywulf (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Cambon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs rogier De wever (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luis Oliveira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gert Verleysen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.90
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alexandre Clay

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs boris froidville (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Michaele Teppa

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gert Verleysen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Valentin Popov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.