Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 8-2-0
40%
Meta
+3.4
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Dominic Ally (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Round 8: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
40% (4/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
10th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luis Oliveira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Angelov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 41:59
Round 5: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joris Borkelmans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
19th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.9
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Elliot Bessède (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michiel Vonck (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32
Round 5: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
28th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs None ()
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lucas Dutailly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Gindri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Marco Di Toro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alexandre Godon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | 50% | Win | |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
35th • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Gindri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ruben Van Dessel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Fincker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Cedric SCHAACK (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Vincent Fasquel (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Loss |
44th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alexander Leus (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Samed Demir (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Round 4: Loss vs Alex Angelov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs rogier De wever (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Michiel Vonck (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs boris froidville (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Niels Vos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs rogier De wever (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Elliot Bessède (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alexandre Godon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
Round 5: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs boris froidville (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
Round 3: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.