Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: Charleroi

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Valentin Popov

2nd • 8-2-0

50%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

5.4

Surp

4.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dominic Ally (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.18
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.27
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.48
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.57
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.85
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.34
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.02
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Bart Horré

10th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luis Oliveira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Angelov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joris Borkelmans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.32
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.20
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.79
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.20
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Nefra Greywulf

19th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elliot Bessède (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michiel Vonck (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.20
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.31
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.04
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Wouter Ouwehand

28th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None ()

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Dutailly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Gindri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marco Di Toro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexandre Godon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.54
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Lucas Nijssen

35th • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Gindri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ruben Van Dessel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Fincker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cedric SCHAACK (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Vincent Fasquel (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.49
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.45
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Gert Verleysen

44th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Leus (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samed Demir (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Angelov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs rogier De wever (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michiel Vonck (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs boris froidville (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.78
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Ihor Kotaiev

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Niels Vos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs rogier De wever (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elliot Bessède (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexandre Godon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.71
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Guillaume Desmartin

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs boris froidville (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.