Fai, Rising Rebellion at Battle Hardened: Charleroi 2026

Fai, Rising Rebellion

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Robson Dechamps

24th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bart Horré (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin van Steenis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Florian Vanclaire (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs jens van santberghe (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adrien Druart (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Dutailly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.50
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.28

Tibo Vanwambeke

46th • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michiel Vonck (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ruben Van Dessel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joris Borkelmans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs boris froidville (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lorenzo Cambon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Stijn Borkelmans

52nd • 1-6-0

29%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexandre Godon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs None ()

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Dutailly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Luis Oliveira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.