Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Battle Hardened: Charleroi 2026

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Niels Vos

26th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ihor Kotaiev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tam Pham (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs João Madureira (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alex Angelov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Kaloyan Nikov

30th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Valentin Popov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julien Lizen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luis Oliveira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 73:27

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs João Madureira (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Fincker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs jens van santberghe (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

jens van santberghe

32nd • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pavlos Konstantinidis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gabriel Gindri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.07
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.