Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Battle Hardened: Charleroi 2026
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
13th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Laurent Lecomte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Raphaël Snaet (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tibo Vanwambeke (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 6: Win vs Niels Vos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Gabriel Gindri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
21st • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tam Pham (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Cambon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Florian Vanbrakel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs boris froidville (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lucas Nijssen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
22nd • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ruben Van Dessel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lucas Nijssen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stefaan Morbee (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tam Pham (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Wouter Ouwehand (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
Round 6: Win vs jens van santberghe (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
33rd • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hugo Platret (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alexandre Clay (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tibo Vanwambeke (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 5: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tam Pham (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Niels Vos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.