Pro Tour: Los Angeles - Katsu, the Wanderer (CC)

Katsu, the Wanderer

22 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Austin Chinn

39th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jimmy Bui (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew W (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mark Morrison (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Dmytro Kozhevin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.31
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.69
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.88
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.54
R14	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Daniel Winning

130th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chard Tan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Shane Martin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Zach Huey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Porter Jones (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.89
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.54
R14	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Nicholas On

134th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Clements (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Vore (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Freddy Friedrich (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Evan Ford (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Gary White (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Chu Heng Eng (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.13
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.75
R12	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.80

Gordon Koh Koh

41st • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Lau (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Justin Cu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.88
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.54
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dan Groseclose

119th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs YuDi Chen (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs randy lavoie (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 69:31

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

20:80

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R11	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.73
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Sebastiano Cavallo

149th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

5.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80

20:80

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs YuDi Chen (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Win	✗	0.80	3.17
R12	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.99
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

David Wadley

dropped • 2-3-1

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josep Giné (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dominique JABES (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Draw vs Jordan Long (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Draw	✓	0.69	-

Archer Taylor

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Bridges (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matt Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nicholas Porter

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nik Katebian (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Taylor Crawford

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Max Chapman (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mark Henderson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.27

Tyler Brotton

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Randall Sims (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Man Hiem Cheung (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.48
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Yorick Schulte

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zoey Gerstner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sasha Markovic (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Chapman (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Zachary Knutson

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Clark (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Nakata (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mikko Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Alexander Benton

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Philippe Thai (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Williams (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Ejupi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.31
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Evan Tanguy

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs hiroshi kanaya (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Jimmy Niro Demers

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Porter Jones (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chard Tan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Walsh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Adam Hamilton-Sutherland

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Freddy Friedrich (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Nakata (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Teoh Juwern (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Christopher Yunck

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chard Tan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dominique JABES (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henry Gomez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.49
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Julian Helgeson

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sergio Sanz Guerrero (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gavin Caldwell (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.54
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Nicholas Loh

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.48
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Ryan Baker

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Barnes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Trenton McBride (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Brengartner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.48
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Sherman Darrenkamp

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Bannigan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Douglas Shima (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.04
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.