FaB-Results
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ryan Rich
68th • 7-1-0
62%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
3.8
Surp
6.2
Diff
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Danton Lima (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Archer Taylor (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rob Cygul (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Matt Muus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Prism, Awakener of Sol
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
Jonathan Magnuson
110th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
3.8
Surp
6.8
Diff
Dromai, Ash Artist
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Derek Anderson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jake Warburton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Kassai of the Golden Sand
!
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Matt Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Max Chapman
141st • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
3.8
Surp
5.4
Diff
Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Dromai, Ash Artist
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Prism, Awakener of Sol
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Adrián Marín (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Matt Noelker (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Michael Barnes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Aidan Barsony
18th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
4.1
Surp
3.8
Diff
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Clay DeAngelis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Prism, Awakener of Sol
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Bravo, Showstopper
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alan Hoang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs nikola marcoux (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Austin Chinn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Michael Metallo
35th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.3
Diff
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Bravo, Showstopper
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stephen Henry (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Viserai, Rune Blood
!!
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jon Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Dromai, Ash Artist
20:80
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Brandon Ejupi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Joel Gibbons
129th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.5
Diff
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matt Kohls (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Yau (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Chia Yong Teck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Michael Bell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Matt Noelker
152nd • 4-4-0
25%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.8
Surp
4.6
Diff
Dromai, Ash Artist
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Koppean (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul A Wright (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
Kano, Dracai of Aether
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Reeve Chia (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Max Chapman (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Chia Yong Teck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Bryce Henschel
114th • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.8
Diff
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ian Carrico (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Eli Teed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Prism, Awakener of Sol
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
Viserai, Rune Blood
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 30:70
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Viserai, Rune Blood
30:70
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 30:70
Alex Tyler
dropped • 4-0-0
75%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
2.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Charles Dunn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
Prism, Awakener of Sol
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alex Chițu (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
Roger Bodee
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.8
Diff
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Metallo (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Viserai, Rune Blood
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Long (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 30:70
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eduardo Melo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.