Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Pro Tour: Los Angeles
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
68th • 7-1-0
62%
Meta
+2.8
Perf
3.7
Surp
5.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Danton Lima (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
Round 3: Win vs Archer Taylor (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rob Cygul (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Matt Muus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
5.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
110th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
3.9
Surp
7.1
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Derek Anderson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jake Warburton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Round 12: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Matt Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
7.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Win |
| R13 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
141st • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
4.0
Surp
5.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Round 11: Loss vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Adrián Marín (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Matt Noelker (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Michael Barnes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
18th • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
4.0
Surp
4.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Clay DeAngelis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39
Round 3: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alan Hoang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs nikola marcoux (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
Round 13: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 14: Win vs Austin Chinn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R14 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Win |
35th • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stephen Henry (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jon Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
20:80
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Brandon Ejupi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Round 13: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R13 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
129th • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matt Kohls (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Yau (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Chia Yong Teck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Michael Bell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
152nd • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
4.1
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Koppean (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul A Wright (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Reeve Chia (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Max Chapman (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Chia Yong Teck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
114th • 3-5-0
88%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ian Carrico (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Eli Teed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 13: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
R14
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R14 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-0-0
75%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
2.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Charles Dunn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alex Chițu (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Metallo (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Long (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eduardo Melo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.