Pro Tour: Los Angeles - Kassai of the Golden Sand (CC)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mercy Bickell

31st • 6-1-1

62%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

6.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs CYK Lionel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Zapata (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Zach Huey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matt Rogers (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Aaron Grace (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Tariq Patel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.32
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.05
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.15
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.86
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.34

Ryan Solava

23rd • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

7.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eli Teed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Montes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sasha Markovic (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Charles Dunn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Matthew Vore (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jakob Allan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

7.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.10
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.34
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R13	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.87
R14	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.21

Corey Baker

46th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

6.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Daniel Dertoni (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.12
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.94
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Win	✗	0.73	2.58
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.15
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.58
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Caleb Zavits

137th • 4-3-1

88%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Mercy Bickell (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nova Chan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Troy Wilson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nicholas On (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Thomas Dowling (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.15
R13	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.70

Cody Gebert

17th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

5.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joel Repta (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 72:28

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Easton Douglas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matt Muus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Ilias Karamanis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 72:28

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Win	✗	0.69	2.33
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.72
R13	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.78
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Steffan Daus

dropped • 2-1-1

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Yarbrough (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Draw	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Dyllon Dietz

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donovan van Beek (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs nikola marcoux (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Jacob Baugh

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carlo Ople (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shane Martin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rob Harechmak (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.47
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.52

Matthew Dilks

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brendan Patrick (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joe DeCaussin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.86
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Mike Williams

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Alves (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bryce Platz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.72
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Pierre-Nicolas Perrin

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Rafael Salsa

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Archer Taylor (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 72:28

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Eric Towne

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sean Gray (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Chris Brummett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zach Huey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Edward Kim

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Ward (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brendan Patrick (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 31:69

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Josep Giné (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Kyle Thiele

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Jackson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mike Morelli (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Lucas Izumi

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Akers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Ejupi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dominique JABES (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Matthew George

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Norah Porter (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Cu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.