Fai, Rising Rebellion at Pro Tour: Los Angeles

Fai, Rising Rebellion

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

ANDREW WEBBER

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ashley Briggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jayson Jacks (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mike Williams (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.71
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Garrett Shustarich

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Shreve (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Mangles (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.06
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.59
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Mikko Pena

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gavin Caldwell (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gui Cohen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Rafaelo "Ruffy" Sarmiento

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Juan Chacon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ayden Dukeshier (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alek Idol (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dmitry Sorokin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Sadat Minick

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Troy Wilson

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jimmy Bui (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.87
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Jeremy Walker

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alek Idol (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Teoh Juwern

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kaiser Tan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nova Chan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.