Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Pro Tour: Los Angeles

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

24 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thomas Battaglia

32nd • 8-0-0

88%

Meta

+3.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

7.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Holland (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Allen Lau (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Raj Parikh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Corey Baker (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

7.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.72
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.27

Justin Cu

27th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

5.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Korner (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew George (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dawson Gilbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Mark Henderson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.68
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.70
R14	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.56

Travis McDaniel

93rd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Zak Cargin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Alex Becker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R11	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.32
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.72
R13	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.74
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Brodie Spurlock

60th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryan Kong (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Randall Sims (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Shreve (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tiger Mckenzie (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Thomas Yarbrough (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Drew Bosco (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.58
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.68
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.24

Fee Sen Sei

74th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs yuta maruo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Soya Okuda (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ashley Briggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs David Yau (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.48
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.30
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Ashley Briggs

128th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kaiser Wong (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Donovan van Beek (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.62
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.90
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

William Bradshaw

118th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Long (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Benton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Scott Mackenzie (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Roger Bodee (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ryan Rich (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Derek Copp (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R11	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.32
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Zayne Johnson

122nd • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Trenton McBride (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Max Botham (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Knight (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matt Muus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Feng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.14
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.30
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Raj Parikh

125th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joel Gibbons (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Chu Heng Eng (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Michael Bell

133rd • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul A Wright (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bryce Morgan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Michael Barnes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Dmitry Sorokin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.19
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.05

Matt Johnson

115th • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Carrico (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Archer Taylor (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Chu Heng Eng (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Lucas Birch

dropped • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jake Warburton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Winning (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Raj Parikh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Thomas Yarbrough (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.71
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Arthur Mills

dropped • 2-1-1

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nik Katebian (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Draw	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.95
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Christopher Dietz

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Cygul (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.36
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Zapata

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Chang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Bridges (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jose Alves

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mike Williams (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Requejo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs nathan lapham (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Terukazu Goshima (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Levi Rauch

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs nikola marcoux (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kamil Rejman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Norah Porter

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew George (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yifei Wang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joe Santianna (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.58
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.23

Jake Warburton

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dmitry Sorokin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Holland (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.58
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jason Chua

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emily Froese (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Kamil Rejman

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Korner (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.88
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Lorenz

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Yarbrough (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hatta Rin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

David Joachim

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs yuta maruo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Jackson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Will Rea (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Jayson Jacks

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stephen Henry (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Kohls (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.