Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Pro Tour: Los Angeles

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Eugene C

47th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

5.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gavin Caldwell (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niklas Bengtsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Chris Brummett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jon Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

15:85

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.27
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.43
R13	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Drew Bosco

82nd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

4.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Ford (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 70:30

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shane Martin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 12:88, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mark Johnson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Bun Ar (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

15:85

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.11
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	15%	Win	✗	0.88	1.12
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.31
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.37
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Lee Ming-Han

139th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

5.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nova Chan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Pham (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyson Au (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 70:30

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ashley Briggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Barnes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs None (Unknown)

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Lucas Molho (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.60

Pablo Pintor

19th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sylvain Poirree (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 12:88

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bruno Carvalho (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesse Hurt (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Allen Lau (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joel Repta (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Ilias Karamanis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.11
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.16
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.17

Reeve Chia

148th • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Brengartner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bryan Kong (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Easton Douglas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Keith Ang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matt Noelker (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Mark Henderson

81st • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Walsh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Rob Cygul (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Justin Cu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Peng Joon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.16
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.37
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

DYLAN MANGINI

97th • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Fraser (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyson Au (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Joel Gibbons (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R14	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

Chia Yong Teck

153rd • 2-6-0

88%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Mercado (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Matt Noelker (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Clay DeAngelis

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Noelker (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Botham (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93

Randall Sims

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 12:88

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.95
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Dexter Phan

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vinicius Toniazzo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 12:88

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Nik Katebian

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andy Modell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Corey Frascati-Robinson

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 12:88

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Paul A Wright

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Bell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tiger Mckenzie (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Noelker (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.