Pro Tour: Los Angeles - Arakni, Huntsman (CC)

Arakni, Huntsman

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Dreisziger

dropped • 2-1-1

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Yarbrough (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs hiroshi kanaya (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs OWN HSIANG YU (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.15
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Win	✗	0.79	2.22

Mike Morelli

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Nakata (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Thiele (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Gavin Caldwell

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andy Modell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.