Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire at Pro Tour: Los Angeles

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

22 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sam Sutherland

30th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

6.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Zapata (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sergio Sanz Guerrero (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jacob Kissel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

6.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.29
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.41
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.52
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.64

Jakob Allan

40th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs nathan lapham (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Reeve Chia (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matt Rogers (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Kento Inagaki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Ryan Solava (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.40
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.29
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.34
R14	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Alex Chițu

43rd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Lind (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Charles Dunn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Dagan White (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs David Yau (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.34
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.34
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.46
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

nikola marcoux

49th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Freddy Friedrich (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Liam Trodden (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.28
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.64

Grzegorz Kowalski

89th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chia Yong Teck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Timothy Long (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.34
R13	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.85
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

YuDi Chen

151st • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Victor Mercado (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Zach Huey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.64

Freddy Friedrich

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Hurt (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas On (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs nikola marcoux (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Peng Joon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.21
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Thomas Preyer

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Corey Baker (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Anthony Pham

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adrián Marín (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.21
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

CYK Lionel

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Chamberlain (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Will Rea (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Niklas Bengtsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.62
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Chard Tan

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edward Knight (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.58
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Danton Lima

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Petry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

Josep Giné

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Wadley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Fraser (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Edward Kim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.39
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75

Bruno Carvalho

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Lau (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joel Repta (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Francisco Leiva Espanhol

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bun Ar (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Henry Gomez (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Joe Santianna

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Norah Porter (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Kaiser Tan

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Teoh Juwern (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chenjun Liu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.28
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Matt Kohls

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jayson Jacks (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.80

Matthew W

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Merrick Kemp

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chia Yong Teck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edward Kim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Chang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Philippe Thai

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Benton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Legg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs OWN HSIANG YU (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Bea Budnik

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sasha Markovic (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul White (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Shreve (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.