Pleiades, Superstar
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
50th • 6-5-1
42%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
5.7
Surp
2.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mitsuhiro Iwata (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mitsuki Sakata (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 75:25
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Masaya Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yusuke Miki (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
Round 9: Win vs 中嶋 海成 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Draw vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Thiwakorn Kanokwanavong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Saori TOYOIZUMI (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Draw |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Takenori Arakawa (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
10:90
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs シンヤ カワグチ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 9:91
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
Round 4: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Masaya Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Rachata Leryoschaipong (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs tomoya kitagawa (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 10% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-1
71%
Meta
-2.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs 大介 小関 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kei Igarashi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Fadel Teasa (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs 直人 三田 (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs 理央 鎌田 (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs yuki ideue (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
17%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 雄斗 宮地 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs shota kajiro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs RYOYA HATTORI (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Riley McIntyre (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jian Wei Tee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Risa Shioji (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marcus Javier (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Taiki Koike (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Nisthal (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs None ()
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs TAITO SUZUKI (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs 祥弘 橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs suk kyo suh (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs OH Youngjin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
10:90
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mizuki Takei (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 9:91
Round 4: Loss vs Taiga Maeda (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 10% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.