Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Calling: Shizuoka 2025
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
10th • 9-3-0
42%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
5.6
Surp
5.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kazushi Nimiya (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Suzuki Takahiro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Risa Shioji (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michalis Michael (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs suguru ishimaru (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs 佐藤 宗良 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 9: Win vs Worranun Suklim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 10: Win vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
75:25
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
5.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
32nd • 8-4-0
75%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
5.4
Surp
3.2
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sato Koichiro (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 匠哉 小島 (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yuma Ishikura (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
Round 5: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kenji Enomoto (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Shoki Imacho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs タカユキ アサヒナ (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs 岡西 達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Pleiades, Superstar | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
48th • 7-5-0
92%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
5.2
Surp
2.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hazuki Mori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Giovanni Prinzivalli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 悠 志茂坂 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs taisuke yoshino (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Connor Leverton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs 창건 곽 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
Round 8: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Pudding Tam (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs 匠哉 小島 (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
92% (11/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (7.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Pleiades, Superstar | 55% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mason Galvan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
Round 2: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs SHUNYA TAMURA (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Loss vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs 福永 純 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Juan Pablo Fonseca Lemos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jacky Ho ()
Round 2: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs motohiro makigano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
Round 4: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs erwin leung (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs 尚規 石坂 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs KOTA SANJO (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 高柳 賢一 (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 明久 髙橋 (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hojin Choi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christian Bergesen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Taiga Maeda (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
Round 2: Loss vs 岡本 一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs 雄斗 宮地 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jun Sato (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs 理央 鎌田 (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs yaqiong Ju (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Motoyoshi Bambara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.