Prism, Awakener of Sol at Calling: Shizuoka 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

周万濵口

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs YOUTAROU MURAMOTO ()

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yuichi Oshima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daisuke Nakashima (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 9:91, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Juan Pablo Fonseca Lemos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs RYOTO KAGAWA (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	10%	Win	✗	0.91	2.31
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Brian Bicknell

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kazushi Nimiya (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs tim Lin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hazuki Mori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs としきながやま (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 9:91

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-

Mitsuki Sakata

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 陽介野村 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 秀太栗原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 匠哉小島 (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Riley McIntyre

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 中嶋海成 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 원률 신 (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.