Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Shizuoka 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Marcus Javier

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Hlaing (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs taisuke yoshino (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chun On Anson Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs MASAYA IWASAKI (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mason Galvan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.17
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.46
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Manson Hsiau

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 拓弥橋本 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 中嶋海成 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs タカユキアサヒナ (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Worranun Suklim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Keisuke Oki

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kei Igarashi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 荒金優太 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Shigeki Okura (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hangjune "Shu" Cho

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Takaaki Sano (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 直人酒井 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Panu Avakul (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Motoyoshi Bambara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

野原由一

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs wooram Oh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Panagiotis Sotiropoulos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Andrew Henderson

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Naoki Endo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs OH Youngjin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.