Jarl Vetreiði at Calling: Shizuoka 2025
Jarl Vetreiði
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-3-2
43%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bernie L (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Fadel Teasa (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Geoff Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs kazuki ueda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Johnny Zen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Jyunnosuke Yamamoto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Draw |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Draw |
dropped • 2-4-1
71%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yoshihiko Kato (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Panagiotis Sotiropoulos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
Round 3: Win vs Mizuki Tamura (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Takaaki Sano (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yohei Kurihara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Round 6: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs SHIGETAKA HAMA (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Draw |
dropped • 0-7-0
29%
Meta
-2.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 荒金 優太 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 원률 신 (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Stephen Miller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Paulus Adiprabawa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
3.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 匠哉 小島 (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Shogo Takayama (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yuki Takayasu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 5: Win vs 悠 志茂坂 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Colin Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.3
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hangjune "Shu" Cho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 73:27
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs タカユキ アサヒナ (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 陽介 野村 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jyunnosuke Yamamoto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ugo Henson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.