Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Pro Tour: Singapore 2025
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
26 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 9-2-0
73%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
4.5
Surp
7.4
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas On (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Shawn Adams (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Brandon Peh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Law Wen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Nathaniel Jerald Bea (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R16 CC
Round 16: Win vs Nathaniel Jerald Bea (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R17 CC
Round 17: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
73% (8/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
7.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R15 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R16 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R17 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
64th • 7-2-0
56%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
4.3
Surp
6.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 4: Win vs Martin Holík (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Keenan Fernandez (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
Round 13: Win vs Alexander Dobler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
25:75
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
6.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
74th • 6-3-0
56%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Henry Leasure (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Danilo Maeda dos Santos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Win vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
75:25
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
91st • 5-3-1
44%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.7
Surp
4.1
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Abdurrahman Putra (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Lim (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18
Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Prisse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 12: Win vs Tariq Patel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
75:25
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Thomas Zimmer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Draw |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R14 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R15 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
26th • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
4.3
Surp
4.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Prisse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Chang Li (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Fee Sen Sei (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18
Round 12: Win vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Edison Yue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
33rd • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
4.2
Surp
4.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Oh Oh (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 4: Win vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
25:75
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R14 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R15 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
55th • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
4.1
Surp
4.0
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ekalux Ua-areemitr (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Muhamad Agus Suriyanto (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Adrián Marín (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Prisse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 13: Win vs Mortal Chu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Nova Chan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Choi Tae seong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
57th • 5-4-0
78%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.0
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jack Tang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Round 5: Win vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Allen Lau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
75:25
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R15 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
70th • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
4.4
Surp
4.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs augustine shim (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Round 3: Win vs Kelvin Tan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dominic Chong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Edison Yue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Clément LOUBIERE (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R13 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R14 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R15 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
81st • 5-4-0
44%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.3
Surp
5.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Round 2: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Braulio Mora (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Marvin Heusinger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Yi Jun Loh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Malcolm Song (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
5.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R15 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
87th • 5-4-0
78%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.8
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marlon Ilagan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ethan Maher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Jiahao Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Round 15: Loss vs 岡本 一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R15 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-1-0
100%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs IAN MESQUITA (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Xavier Aubert (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
dropped • 4-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Igor Wesołowski (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bernardo José Alves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs IAN MESQUITA (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jude Cornett (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Colin Li (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Hill (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Win vs Grant Bartel (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mathew Fletcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs YuDi Chen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lee Kimball (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-1
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chia Yong Teck (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
Round 3: Win vs Andy Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Hayden Dale (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Draw |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Allen Lau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cecil Fletcher (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nick McGrath (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jason Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jyunnosuke Yamamoto (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Chang Li (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Round 2: Win vs Zachary Cauchi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.4
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Keith Yong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cas Mulder (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Julianto (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs kuba tambor (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aziz Riphat (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Gilmartin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Richard Gillingham (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ivan Teo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lane Thomason (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Loss vs Emmanuel Onate (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Cody Dennhardt (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 4: Loss vs Khoi Dinh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Peng Joon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Myles Lim (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Round 4: Loss vs Kieran Carnegie (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brayden Pritchard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.